Sheikh Hasina flees country for safety as her residence is no longer safe

On August 4 Sheikh Hasina Wazed announced her resignation after weeks of protests and riots led to the deaths of 300 people. The demonstrations were about her insistence that the descendants of those who fought for independence in 1971 should have a percentage of government posts reserved for them. There were protests against this reservation system. Though the PM fled, the President remains en poste and in the country.

The Bihari minority in Bangladesh is ill-used. These people are Muslims who shifted from Bihar in 1947 because they believed in Pakistan as a homeland for Muslims. They moved to Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) rather than to the western wing of Pakistan because East Pak was closer.

It turned out to be a fatal mistake in some cases. Literally fatal! In 1971 when Bengalis in East Pak fought for independence, the Biharis fought to maintain the unity of Pakistan. They tended to speak Urdu – the official language of Pakistan. Those who volunteered to fight for Pakistan were known as Razakars (‘’volunteers’’).

When Pakistan was defeated, and Bangladesh was recognised as a sovereign state, the Biharis were severely discriminated against. They were denied Bangladeshi citizenship. India would not take them back and nor would Pakistan. In post-1971 Bangladesh, the word Razakar became the foulest insult.

Those who demanded an end to the reservation system then brought the word razakar through reclamation. Many of the incensed demonstrators were furious about conjoined issues of impecuniosity, discrimination as well as speculation.

Irate crowds broke through a security cordon and marched on the Prime Minister’s Residence. Hasina was evacuated in a Bangladeshi Army helicopter. The chopper entered Indian airspace with Delhi’s permission. The former PM of Bangladesh landed in India and was cordially received by a high-level delegation.

It is unclear if she has had any direct contact with Narendra Modi since arriving in India. Sheikh Hasina has visited India on several occasions and had bilateral meetings with Modi. She is known to have a good working relationship with him despite him being the face of Hindutva and her being a practising Muslim. She never raised her voice for Muslims in India nor did Modi speak out for Hindus in Bangladesh, despite some of them being harassed or assaulted.

Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League have been becoming less popular for a few years. The economy never fully recovered from the COVID lockdown.

Dhaka has been voted the most unliveable major city in the world. The pollution, traffic, overcrowding and lack of amenities make it ghastly.

Bangladeshis’ Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) was perceived to be little more than a bullyboy organisation for the Awami League. They caused many dissidents to disappear. People were kidnapped rather than legally arrested. Therefore, the DGFI did not have to trouble themselves with habeas corpus or trials. Families of the detenus would be unofficially told not to cause trouble or it would be worse for the abducted loved one.

Corruption and defalcation are endemic. It is hard to get much done in Bangladesh without crossing a palm with silver.

It is not known how long Sheikh Hasina will be welcome in India. Much though India has appreciated its amicable relationship with her, it is certain that she will never lead Bangladesh again. India needs to have at least a civil if not a warm relationship with its eastern neighbour.

Therefore, New Delhi may ask whether it should host the former PM indefinitely. This may impact relations with Dhaka. Bangladesh might formally request extradition. This would place the Republic of India in an invidious position. To send her back to face trial would seem to be disloyal to an old friend who threw herself on India’s mercy. But to fail to send her back to her own people to answer for alleged gross abuse of human rights would offend Bangladesh and appear to be a condonation of grave crimes.

Sheikh Hasina served as PM since 2009. She also had a previous stint in office. At 76 this is surely the end of the road for her in politics. She is the last leader in South Asia to be a born subject of the British Empire. She was born just after independence, but the British Monarch was still King of India and indeed King of Pakistan at the time.

Hasina led the Awami League. The Awami League became prominent in Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in the 1950s. At that time Pakistan was dominated by West Pakistan. The Bengali language did not have official status and West Pakistanis who were 47% of the population had the lion’s share of the top jobs.

Miss Hasina's father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman led Bangladesh to independence in 1971. He was often imprisoned by Pakistan during the Freedom Struggle, as the Bangladeshis call it. In 1975 he was overthrown and killed by his own army. His whole family was killed except his daughter Sheikh Hasina. She and her husband were not at home when the coupsters struck in the middle of the night. Sheikh Hasina and Mr. Wazed were tipped off that the army had slain their kin and were hunting them.

The couple fled to the German Embassy where they sought asylum. The Germans took them in and sheltered them. The coupsters did not violate diplomatic immunity so Sheikh Hasina and her husband were safe. The coupsters were pushed out of power a few months later. Sheikh Hasina then entered politics saying she forgave her father’s killers. She kept that vow for a long time. In 2010 she judged it safe to renege on it. The army officers who had overthrown and killed her father were charged with murder, convicted and hanged.

There has been speculation that Miss Hasina’s ouster was caused by the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Why would the ISI want her out? Her cooperative relationship with India was patently bad news for Pakistan. Pakistan views this as a zero-sum gain. If India gains, then Pakistani loses and vice versa. There can be no gain for both at the same time. Pakistan’s close ally China also wished to see a diminution of Indian sway in Dhaka.

Because of the war waged by Pakistan against Bangladesh in 1971, it is hard to see how Pakistan can ever enjoy much influence. Most Bangladeshis do not consider that Pakistan has been sufficiently contrite or that it has made any amends. Moreover, Pakistan is embroiled in its own domestic travails with its former PM Imran Khan in prison and its economy close to collapse.

China is a mighty nation, and its economic resources are second only to those of the USA. Therefore, the Chinese really could extend their influence in Bangladesh. They would want to purchase more factories, farmland and other entities. They may offer debt trap diplomacy. The Chinese would pay for Chinese firms to build new roads, railways, ports and airports etc… These would remain Chinese-owned.

Bangladesh would have to pay back loans at exorbitant rates of interest and pay to use the facilities. Beijing would like Bangladesh to purchase its manufacturing facilities and be a place for Chinese companies to outsource low-wage work. They would like Dhaka to buy only Chinese military hardware.

China also aggressively markets surveillance technology. They would also have trapdoors in these, allowing them to spy on Bangladeshi intelligence services. The ideal outcome for China would be a military alliance with Bangladesh and even to establish military bases in the country. This could possibly encircle India.

Some Bangladeshis are shifting to South Korea to work. South Korea faces population implosion due to a very low birth rate. Bangladeshis speak of a Korean dream. The wages they earn there go a long way at home. Moreover, Korea is a very orderly, clean and quiet place to live.

The main opposition party is the Bangladesh National Party (BNP). It is led by Khaleda Zia. She only entered politics when her husband Ziaur Rahman was assassinated while he was President of Bangladesh in 1981.

The author is a political analyst from the UK. He can be watched on YouTube: George from Ireland