The agenda behind constituency delimitation
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The recent concerns raised by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin regarding the delimitation or redrawing of Lok Sabha constituencies have sparked a new political controversy. Stalin stated that the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies based on population ratio, which is set to occur after the census, is like a sword hanging over South India. He argued that if constituencies are redrawn based on population, the number of Lok Sabha seats for South Indian states will naturally decrease, while North Indian states will see a significant increase in their seat count. This, in turn, would benefit the BJP, according to Stalin. His concerns have resonated with many who have long understood the demographic trends in the country since the central government first announced the delimitation process. Consequently, Stalin's political statement has sparked widespread debate. Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Telugu Desam Party leader Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy have also come forward to support Stalin. Some have even interpreted the delimitation process itself as a political strategy by the BJP. In response, Union Home Minister Amit Shah stepped in to defend the central government and the BJP, using harsh language to criticize Stalin and others. Shah clarified that the number of seats for South Indian states would not decrease. However, opposition parties and ruling parties in South Indian states are not ready to accept this at face value. They have pointed out the flaws in the Home Minister's argument and have reignited the serious political debate on the issue.
After every census, it is the constitutional obligation of the central government to redraw constituencies proportionate to the population. This was done accurately after the 1951, 1961, and 1971 censuses. During the Emergency period, a constitutional amendment deferred the delimitation process until 2001. In 2001, although the boundaries of constituencies were altered, their number remained unchanged. At that time, it was also decided that delimitation would not be necessary until 2026, and a related constitutional amendment was made. The next delimitation is supposed to be based on the 2021 census. However, even before the preliminary steps of the yet-to-begin census were initiated, the central government showed a special interest in delimitation, making it clear that there were hidden agendas behind this move. The Modi government, which has secured a third consecutive term at the Centre, appears to have adopted a policy of aligning all governance mechanisms to suit its interests for administrative stability. The most recent example is the appointment of the Chief Election Commissioner. The Central government has overturned the appointment procedures of the Election Commission, an institution that has stood for credibility and transparency for over seven decades, thereby completely undermining its trustworthiness and transparency. The matter is currently under the consideration of the Supreme Court. In the same vein, the steps related to delimitation must also be viewed critically. The Modi government seems to be embarking on a strategy to carve out parliamentary constituencies in a manner favourable to it, aiming to establish dominance in elections and manipulate outcomes in their favour. For this purpose, they are now using population as the sole criterion.
The Central government has not yet clarified the criteria for delimitation. However, there are already indications that the standard of one constituency for every 20 lakh people will be applied. If this happens, the current 543 Lok Sabha constituencies will increase to 753. If the increase of 210 seats were distributed proportionally based on the existing framework, it might not have caused significant issues. However, if the population-based criterion is applied, there will be a massive increase in the number of constituencies in North India; out of the 210 new seats, 175 will be allocated there. Uttar Pradesh alone will gain 40 additional seats. In contrast, states like Kerala will see a reduction in their current number of seats. If elections are held after such a delimitation, the political implications under the current scenario are all too clear. This is precisely what the BJP aims at and what the opposition fears. There is no dispute that periodic delimitation is necessary. However, population should not be the sole criterion. This criterion was effectively discarded decades ago. Had it not been so, the number of constituencies would have increased as early as 2021. India is a country that has implemented policies for population control. It is due to the effective implementation of these policies that South India has managed to control its population. In contrast, North Indian states, which failed to enforce these policies, have seen a population surge. Now, the central government is capitalizing on this "failure". In reality, what is needed is to ensure proportional representation of states in Parliament beyond just population-based criteria. Otherwise, discrepancies in resource allocation and other areas will occur, leading to developmental stagnation in the country. However, the Modi government views the crucial delimitation process as a golden opportunity to marginalize political opponents, disregarding all such considerations. This is nothing but fascism cloaked in democracy. Therefore, democrats have no option but to stand firm alongside the protest announced by Stalin.
