Political shift in Germany
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In Germany, one of Europe’s major powers, the conservative party led by Friedrich Merz emerged victorious in the general elections held amid political crises. According to the Federal Election Commission’s report, the CDU-CSU party, led by Merz, secured 28.6% of the votes. The far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which has been gaining strength in Germany in recent years, came in second with 20.8% of the votes. The outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) received 16.4%, while the environmentalist Greens secured 11.6%. Merz’s victory cannot be considered unexpected. An opinion poll conducted ten days before the election had predicted that the CDU-CSU party would secure 29% of the votes. The final vote shares of the other parties also closely matched the opinion poll results. Since forming a government without a coalition is impossible, the CDU-CSU is now attempting to form an alliance with other parties, avoiding collaboration with the "untouchable" AfD. A key aspect of this victory is that the CDU, the party that ruled Germany for 16 years under Angela Merkel until 2021, has returned to power under the leadership of Merz, who was previously sidelined within the Merkel-led party. Even after the collapse of the coalition government formed by the SPD, Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) in November last year, a coalition government remains the most likely outcome. The only source of relief, both domestically and internationally, is that the far-right AfD -embracing extreme nationalist ideals inspired by Germany’s Nazi past - has once again been kept out of power.
The CDU, returning to power once again, has shifted away from former leader Merkel’s moderate stance and has also adopted tactics to attract far-right supporters. As nationalist parties gain strength across Europe, fueled by rising anti-immigrant sentiment, this vulnerability has become an opportunity for them. In the German elections, the CDU-CSU put forward the promise of shutting and securing the doors that Merkel had once opened to immigrants. Not just them, but all major parties this time supported tightening immigration controls. However, the CDU-CSU has now presented a five-point action plan proposing fundamental changes to immigration and asylum laws, even though many aspects of it contradict the principles of the UN’s Geneva Convention. Last January, Merz introduced a motion demanding stricter border security laws to prevent immigrants from entering, which was supported by the far-right AfD. Merkel, who had long viewed Merz as her lifelong political rival, used this AfD support against him to the fullest extent. Although the motion was narrowly defeated, what surprised everyone was that Merz, who had once fiercely spoken against the AfD, has now softened the mainstream parties’ stance on maintaining strict isolation from them. Realizing this, he later clarified during and after the elections that there would be no alliance with them.
Along with his anti-immigration stance, Merz's willingness to oppose America's stance against the European-NATO alliance has also increased his support. He declared that his top priority is to rapidly and systematically strengthen Europe to gain independence from the United States. Some in America, including the Trump administration, insist that Europe should not reap any benefits at its expense. However, Merz is determined to push forward, bypassing these pressures and restoring NATO’s prestige. It is not just the United States; Russia, too, may not favor the new German government due to its strong support for Ukraine. Acknowledging this geopolitical reality, Merz stated that Germany is caught between America's open military conflicts and the Cold War between Russia and China. However, he does not view this as helplessness but rather as an opportunity for a strategic struggle for survival. The newly elected leader of Germany, Europe's largest economy - has announced that he will lead Europe forward with unity, resisting pressure from global superpowers. His signals towards adjusting military and nuclear strategies in response to shifting geopolitical conditions should be seen as a declaration of European reorganization and display of power. However, for these ambitions to materialize, the first step must be to form an alliance of trusted partners and establish a stable government. And then, it should reclaim Europe's leadership that Germany had lost. The key question now is whether Merz has the strength to achieve this historic transformation.
