Is Trump abandoning Ukraine and Europe?

When the Russia-Ukraine saw its third anniversary on Monday, the question raised by the new circumstances is whether the conflict will remain a war. The US had been supporting Ukraine in its war against Russian invasion whole hog but ever since Donald Trump took charge in the White House, he has not been speaking the language of war. Trump's pronouncements were that Ukraine President Zelensky started the war and he is a dictator. And Trump is keen to have a close relationship with Russian President Putin. As a whole, America's new policy seems to embrace the Kremlin. This new position is causing despair to not just Zelensky but across all 27 European Union capitals. Europe is backing Ukraine mostly banking on US support. Moreover, they insisted on the admission of Ukraine into NATO. On the other side, the main demand put forward by Russia is that Ukraine should not become a member of NATO. Trump's position is that now is not the time to think about NATO expansion. All 32 NATO member nations unanimously backed Ukraine's membership move till mid-2024. The US also expressed solidarity with the same. But, a lot of things flipped upside down when Joe Biden was replaced by Donald Trump. It looks like Ukraine's NATO membership is among things that have evaporated in the process.

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The first signs of the new equation were visible in the Russia-US talks in Riyadh a week ago. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov concluded the talks by saying that both sides will try to find a peaceful solution to the Ukraine issue, which should have been the main agenda of the said meeting. Significantly, Ukraine was not made a party to any of these negotiations. Most Western journalists observe that America agrees with Russia's position. In parallel with the meetings in Riyadh, the security summit held in Munich, Germany raised concerns about this. The conference was attended by a majority of the European political leadership. It was held with the knowledge, and in the background of a 90-minute phone conversation between Trump and Putin. Even more, there was a visible realisation that the United States was leaning towards appeasing Russia. The US' current attitude is that Moscow could even keep the 20 percent of Ukraine's territory it captured in the war.

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The United States and the European countries, including Britain, have held almost the same positions in most of the international equations ever since the Second World War. Although there were minor differences from time to time on some issues such as Palestine, Israel, and freedom of expression, they were united in their response to the Russian position. That unity of decades is now being threatened, and it is beginning to create displeasure in European capitals. They are concerned not only by their own security but also by the general threat of Russian influence faced primarily by Eastern European countries bordering Russia (Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and Norway in addition to the large countries Ukraine and Belarus).

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With this comes the possibility of China's hegemony too. Similar to Russia's claim on Ukraine, China also claims the neighboring island nation of Taiwan as its own. China also conducts occasional provocative military exercises. The result of the current softening of US stance is that either the US may show a similar softer approach towards China or it will create a China that is more defiant. In both cases, Europe is likely to be scared. Apart from that, Europe is also worried that it cannot rely on the United States for security any longer. Europe, which with all its countries' military strength put together will have only a tenth of America's military capabilities, will take a long time to reach that level. But such a scenario is beginning to be discussed in European capitals.

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The fundamental question is whether America will gradually relinquish its role as world's police. The Trump era will last four more years, but just four. Trump's actions, fueled by his personal quirks and idiosyncrasies, however, do not necessarily have robust administrative stability or strong expert support. With the exception of Israel, the Trump dictum is to avoid fighting other countries' wars far and wide. There are limitations for the policies adopted by one administration to be withdrawn by another administration, especially if it entails taking new responsibilities. The decision by a new regime to take on Russia and China again will be such a difficult task. Ukraine's independence, Europe's security, and what will happen in the new world order are still phenomena to be watched.

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