India most likely undercounting heat related deaths: Soumya Swaminathan

New Delhi: Former WHO chief scientist and health ministry advisor Soumya Swaminathan stated that India is "most likely" undercounting heat-related deaths due to inadequate data, but the government is improving surveillance to mitigate the impact of extreme conditions on health.

Speaking with PTI at TERI's World Sustainable Development Summit, Soumya sounded a warning as India prepares for another scorching summer, stressing the urgent need for improved heatwave preparedness and policy interventions to protect public health.

Asked if India was undercounting heat-related deaths, the former director general of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said, "Most likely. We do not really have a good record of every death in the country and so we have to make some estimations. We have to do some sort of calculations or modelling based on what is happening." But recently, there have been several scientific papers that have actually tracked what are called excess deaths, Soumya said.

"When you look throughout the year, deaths every month will be the same in number in general. But then if you suddenly see a spike, like during COVID, we saw a spike.

"So you are going along with your death rate every month fairly stable and then suddenly, in May-June, you see a spike. You can then attribute that the excess deaths are possibly due to heat," she explained.

Last year's summer was particularly devastating in India, with the country enduring a record 536 heatwave days, the highest in 14 years, as per the India Meteorological Department.

Official statistics revealed 41,789 suspected heat stroke cases and 143 heat-related deaths during one of the most intense and prolonged heatwaves. However, public health experts warn that the actual number of heat-related fatalities may be significantly higher, as 20-30% of heat stroke cases typically result in death, suggesting a substantial undercount.

The IMD has forecast above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures over most parts of the country this summer season too.

While the health ministry has introduced surveillance for heat-related deaths, renowned scientist Soumya Swaminathan warns that fatalities represent only "the very tip of the iceberg."

"For every one death, there are probably 20 people who are suffering the impact of heat from high blood pressure or exacerbation of their cardiac disease or heat exhaustion and not being able to go to work," she added.

"There is a lot of productivity loss and economic loss that is happening, which may not be a death, but it is definitely having a big impact on families. That is where we need to really focus our attention because we need to make sure that people remain comfortable and productive," Soumya said.

She also highlighted the alarming mental health consequences of prolonged heat exposure, citing increased suicides, worsening psychiatric illnesses, and rising domestic violence.

(inputs from PTI)