Delhi's result and AAP's future
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In the Delhi Assembly elections, the BJP has come to power with an authentic victory, marking the end of AAP’s 10-year rule. Winning 48 out of 70 seats, this is a proud moment for the BJP as it returns to power after 27 years. Despite securing a third consecutive term at the Centre, the keys to Indraprastha had remained out of their reach. Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party, which emerged with the slogan of anti-corruption politics, had twice kept Modi and his team at bay, leaving the BJP’s Delhi unit virtually non-existent as an opposition for a decade. However, this time, with the added strength of the central government, the saffron brigade entered the electoral battlefield with new strategies and experiments. As predicted by exit polls, they have staged a comeback. This direct setback in their stronghold could potentially cast AAP’s future into uncertainty. While Congress has been wiped out for a third consecutive time, its only consolation is securing over two percent more votes this time.
For those closely following Delhi politics, the BJP’s comeback is no surprise. Since the moment Kejriwal secured his second term with 62 seats in 2020, the central government has consistently targeted the AAP administration through various operations. This election result is, therefore, a natural consequence of that sustained effort. The NDA government's approach toward opposition-ruled states is well known, and the AAP government became a direct victim of that extreme and fascist strategy. Just like in Kerala, the central government obstructed multiple welfare schemes in Delhi, consistently interfered in the state administration using central agencies, and disrupted welfare projects. The intervention of Delhi’s Lieutenant Governor, a nominee of the Modi government, played a key role in this. Take the infamous Delhi liquor policy case, for example. The Governor’s report, which alleged corruption and undue changes in the liquor policy, triggered a central agency investigation that ultimately led to the imprisonment of Kejriwal and several others. This move successfully destabilized AAP's leadership for a prolonged period.
By the time the Lok Sabha elections were announced last year, at least five key AAP leaders were already in jail, including Arvind Kejriwal, the party's convenor and Chief Minister, former Deputy CM Manish Sisodia, former Health Minister Satyendar Jain, party spokesperson Vijay Nair, and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh. Despite this, the party launched its election campaign without them. Satyendar Jain was arrested on charges of money laundering, while the others were implicated in the liquor policy case. Just before the elections, Kejriwal managed to secure bail, but the party’s election fight was significantly weakened by then. Partnering with Congress in the elections did not help, as AAP suffered defeats across the board. By successfully pushing the narrative that Kejriwal and his anti-corruption crusaders had themselves become corrupt, the BJP effectively shaped public perception. This election result further proves that this narrative found widespread acceptance.
To overcome this credibility crisis, the Aam Aadmi Party introduced more welfare schemes and other initiatives. However, at the time, this was seen as nothing more than overconfidence. This led to the belief that directly challenging the BJP as part of the 'INDIA' bloc was the only way forward. Kejriwal not only ignored this but also clashed with the Congress within the alliance. While the Congress recognized that AAP was responsible for its decline in states like Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana, it set the stage for a three-way contest in Delhi. For the Congress, which had nothing to lose, the goal was to increase its vote share—and it succeeded. The statements made by Congress leaders reflect their satisfaction with this outcome. For AAP, however, this three-way battle proved costly. A preliminary analysis of the election results shows that while their tally shrank to just 13 seats, this was largely due to Congress's presence. Among the lost seats were the constituencies of both Kejriwal and Sisodia. By countering Kejriwal’s development-centric politics, which focused on the middle class in Delhi, the BJP ensured AAP’s complete downfall. Kejriwal’s main criticism of Modi had revolved around the "Taxation Regime" (Nikita Raj). But after the recent budget, in which the BJP raised the income tax exemption limit and positioned itself as the 'new savior' of the middle class, Kejriwal’s criticism lost its impact during the election days. The results reflected this shift accurately.
Also Read:BJP has been ruling Delhi indirectly: Dhruv Rathee on AAP's
As the BJP returns to Indraprastha after two and a half decades, the concerns of the secular community have doubled. Previously, when the BJP ruled Delhi, it maintained a secular stance at the Centre. Even though the NDA government ruled for over 15 years in two phases, Delhi remained an unfulfilled dream for the BJP. In 2019, despite Modi securing a massive majority for a second term, that dream remained out of reach. Efforts to seize control of the national capital using the power of the central government also did not succeed. Because of this, the BJP never truly achieved ‘complete’ power. Although slightly weakened in Parliament, they have now attained that goal. Naturally, going forward, the landscape of Indraprastha will look different—there is no doubt about that. This is precisely the root of the secular community’s concerns. With proper planning and unity, had the election been confronted head-on, the outcome might have been different. After the Lok Sabha elections, the ‘INDIA’ bloc is generally weak. This weakness, in turn, signals the fragmentation of the secular alliance—a message reinforced by the election results. Therefore, this result is also a warning.